Weekend 🔗 Digest - Happy New Year 🥳
[5 min read] In your inbox every Saturday morning, best enjoyed with coffee and brunch ☕. Today we are talking signs of US economic slowdown and reducing inflation, and ChatGPT the AI chatbot
If you are new, be sure to check out the history & purpose of this newsletter as well as the archive
Market update 📉
TL;DR: Early signs of economic slowdown and reducing inflation mean that while there is still pain to come, that late 2023/early 2024 could see interest rates lowered and asset prices recover
US economy 🌎 - The centre of the global economy shows more signs of slowing
🔨 US Job report came out yesterday, hiring slowed modestly in December as employers added 223,000 jobs to close out an otherwise booming year, possibly foreshadowing the deeper pullback and recession that many economists expect in 2023. The Fed will not reduce interest rates (which is what will stimulate asset prices) until unemployment rises - it’s now at 3.5% a 50-year low 📉
December showed a sharp dip in the ISM services PMI, and a further dip in the ISM manufacturing PMI. These monthly reports that provide an overview of economic conditions in the service & manufacturing sectors of the US economy. The report is used by businesses, investors, and policymakers to gauge the health of the economy. >50 indicates the services sector economy is generally expanding; <50 indicates it is generally contracting.
Inflation update🎈 - A global challenge for 2023
🌎 US inflation continues to really hurt households. Petrol prices slowing down but rent is still inflating. In a December survey, more than 50% of the respondents said their monthly rent rose by $150NZD, and 4% of respondents said their increase was more than $780NZD 🤯
The same survey showed 35% of households used credit cards or loans in December to cover spending needs, up from around 32% in Nov. In April 2021 when they first started collecting this data it was 21%.
🌍 The EU released its December inflation report, the Euro area showed +9.2% inflation, less than the expected 9.7% (and much lower than the November 10.1%).
⚡ Consumer Electronics Show is kicking off in Las Vegas, and numerous companies are showing their push for the metaverse. Click here to watch a special edition of "All About Bitcoin", with executives from Microsoft and PwC as well as 'Into the Metaverse' Author Cathy Hackl.
🤖 ChatGPT is taking the world by storm
The AI-powered chatbot has been taking the world by storm since it launched in Nov 2022. It was trained from internet data in 2021 so is not “connected” to the internet now, but it can already do amazing things and will only get smarter. I will let it tell you the rest itself, I asked it 3 questions:
I’ll be doing a more in-depth article on ChatGPT soon, this is just a primer!
Happy new year everyone, may 2023 be one with health, happiness and learning! (I can help with the last one 🤓